MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2018-04-14T00:29:00
The flux of high energy (greater than 2MeV) electrons, as measured by GOES15, has generally persisted at high to very high levels, due to influence of the high speed stream of CH88. This has led to electron fluence levels also maintaining Active levels, peaking at around 8e8 integrated pfu. A decline in fluence values is now signalled, and with any further enhancements of the solar wind likely to remain minimal through the forecast period, a gradual trend towards normal background fluence values is anticipated.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2018-04-14T00:29:00 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 100% | 20% |
| Day 2 | 90% | 10% |
| Day 3 | 70% | 10% |
| Day 4 | 60% | 10% |