Forecaster summary - Issued 2018-04-21T00:54:36

High energy electron flux is forecast to remain at moderate to high levels through day 1, with an increasing chance of this staying at high levels for day 2 and 3, before slowly declining on day 4 as the high speed stream wanes.

The corresponding electron fluence is forecast to stay below the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) threshold on day one as electrons were redistributed with the arrival of the CIR and HSS. As electron levels increase due to the high speed stream, the integrated electron fluence levels may just reach the 1e8 active level by day 2, but more likely on day 3 and 4.