MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2018-04-20T00:31:50
The diurnal oscillation of electron flux at GOES 15 temporarily reached High levels during the evening of the 19th, but generally remained at Moderate levels through the previous 24 hours. The high energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) is expected to reach Low levels at times today, due to geomagnetic activity associated with the arrival of a HSS from CH90. The flux is then expected to increase Moderate to High from tomorrow onwards.
The corresponding electron fluence is expected to remain at Low to Moderate levels until later in the forecast period, most likely day 4 (23rd), when it may increase to reach High levels in response to solar wind speeds of around 500 km/s from the HSS.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2018-04-20T00:31:50 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 20% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 40% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 60% | 5% |
| Day 4 | 60% | 5% |