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MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit

Forecaster summary - Issued 2018-04-19T00:20:36

Coronal hole 90 high speed stream connection and increased geomagnetic activity is expected later on day 1 (19th) and during day 2 (20th), with the high energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) likely to see reductions to near background levels for a time. The established high speed stream should then see electron counts recover to moderate to high levels from day 3. Fluence levels should fall below the active level (1e8 integrated pfu) on day 1, then with an increasing chance of rising above from day 3 as electrons accumulate again in the Van Allen belts.

 
High Energy Electron Event Forecast
Issued 2018-04-19T00:20:36
Probability of threshold exceedance
 ActiveV.Active
Day 1 80% 1%
Day 2 20% 1%
Day 3 30% 1%
Day 4 40% 1%