Forecaster summary - Issued 2018-03-20T00:24:16

The high energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) was variable at first, fluctuating between moderate and high levels, following some enhanced geomagnetic activity. However, a rising trend followed with the diurnal peak eventually crossing the very high threshold, 19,500 pfu at 19/2120 UTC.

With further occasional enhanced geomagnetic activity anticipated over the next few days, the high energy electron flux is expected to remain at mainly moderate to high levels, with possible temporary reductions to background values associated with any enhanced geomagnetic activity. The corresponding 24-hour electron fluence is expected to remain above, or close to, the Active threshold (1e8 integrated pfu) for much of the period, but perhaps with an overall declining trend.