MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2018-03-19T00:24:27
The flux of high energy electrons (greater than 2MeV) at geoesynchronous orbit is expected to remain at mainly high levels for the next few days, perhaps with occasional drops to moderate levels at low points in the diurnal cycle. There may also be some reductions to near background levels associated with any geomagnetic storm intervals early on day 1 (19th).
The corresponding 24-hour electron fluence is expected to remain above the Active threshold (1e8 integrated pfu) for much of the period, but with a decreasing trend from day 3 (21st).
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2018-03-19T00:24:27 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 100% | 15% |
| Day 2 | 80% | 10% |
| Day 3 | 60% | 5% |
| Day 4 | 40% | 1% |