MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2018-04-18T00:05:30
The high energy electron flux (greater than 2 MeV) has been fluctuating between moderate and high levels, with a peak flux of 4590 pfu at 17/2045 UTC. Moderate to high levels are expected to continue on day 1. A reduction to background levels is likely late day 2 or on day 3 (19 or 20 Apr) due to enhanced geomagnetic activity associated with coronal hole 90. Levels are then likely to recover to moderate to high by day 4 (21 Apr) due to enhanced solar winds speeds.
The corresponding 24-hour high energy electron fluence has held steady just above the Active threshold (1e8 integrated pfu) in the past 24 hours. Fluence levels are expected to fall from late day 2 in response to decrease flux levels, then remain below the Active threshold, although with a chance of recovering by day 4 (21 Apr).
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2018-04-18T00:05:30 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 100% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 80% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 10% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 30% | 1% |