MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2018-04-27T00:26:50
With a weak high speed stream expected over the next couple of days, electron flux levels are likely fluctuate between moderate to high levels in the natural diurnal cycle, with perhaps with some occasional reductions in response to any enhanced geomagnetic activity. The corresponding fluence is expected to remain above the active threshold on day 1 and 2, slowly declining and dropping below the active threshold (1e8 integrated pfu) late on day 2 (28th) or early day 3 (29th).
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2018-04-27T00:26:50 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 100% | 5% |
| Day 2 | 80% | 5% |
| Day 3 | 40% | 2% |
| Day 4 | 30% | 1% |