Forecaster summary - Issued 2018-04-28T00:02:31

The high energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) may rise above the Active period at times during the period, although there is general downward trend over the next few days. The corresponding fluence is expected to remain above the Active threshold at first on Day 1, but with reducing confidence through the rest of the period. This is reflected in the lowering forecast probabilities given above. The REFM persistence suggests the Active level may be breached at times during the coming four days, while the forecast model is indicating a steady decline below the threshold.