Forecaster summary - Issued 2018-03-29T00:29:41

The high energy electron flux is likely to remain at Very Active levels at first, but with lower confidence from Day 3 as High speed stream influences are likely to redistribute electrons to some extend. The 24-hour high energy electron fluence is likely to remain above the Active threshold through much of the 4-day period, but may fall to near or below the Active threshold after Day 3 (31 March). The REFM model shows levels falling off sharply on Days 3 to 4, but there is low confidence. The 27-day persistence doesn't give useful guidance either as levels were much lower on the previous rotation. The most likely scenario is that levels will reduce on Days 3 and 4 due to the elevated solar wind speed from the next positive coronal hole 86, hence reducing probabilities towards the end of the period.