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MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit

Forecaster summary - Issued 2018-03-30T00:15:04

The high energy electron flux is likely to show a slow downward trend through the next four days, with some more noticeable reductions possible if effects from coronal hole 86 in the northwest enhance the solar wind environment and generate any increased geomagnetic activity.  

The 24 hour integrated fluence is currently just above the very active (1e9 pfu) threshold, but this is also expected to show a slow decline over the forecast period, and likely to be near or below the active (1e8 pfu) threshold by day 4 (2nd Apr). 

 
High Energy Electron Event Forecast
Issued 2018-03-30T00:15:04
Probability of threshold exceedance
 ActiveV.Active
Day 1 100% 100%
Day 2 80% 30%
Day 3 60% 5%
Day 4 40% 1%