Forecaster summary - Issued 2018-03-23T00:16:37

The high energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) as measured by GOES-15 at GEO was at high levels  (above 1000 pfu) until 22/2255 UTC when it decreased to moderate levels (below 1000 pfu), with a peak flux of 18,383 pfu at 22/1910 UTC. The flux is expected to continue to diurnally reach high levels throughout the forecast period, but with a gradual overall decline. There will also be some occasional temporary reductions to background or moderate levels during any enhanced geomagnetic activity, with the main likelihood late tomorrow or early day 3 (25th).

The corresponding 24-hour electron fluence will start above the Active threshold (1e8 integrated pfu), but with its gradually declining trend it is likely to decrease below the Active threshold by day 4 (26th).