MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2018-03-24T00:00:55
The high energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) as measured by GOES15 at GEO decreased from high levels to background levels after 22/2255 UTC in response to an increase in geomagnetic activity. The flux in the Van Allen belts has now been left depleted, reducing the 24-hour fluence below threshold for day 1. With further elevated winds expected, the flux is likely to slowly increase again, especially as the more significant fast wind from CH82 becomes established from day 3 onwards.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2018-03-24T00:00:55 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 10% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 40% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 60% | 5% |
| Day 4 | 80% | 20% |