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MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit

Forecaster summary - Issued 2018-03-25T00:26:56

The high energy electron flux peaked at high levels over the past 24 hours in response to slightly elevated solar winds. Periods of increased geomagnetic activity on days 1 and 2 are likely to lead to temporary reductions to background levels, although the flux is likely to increase overall in response to the coronal hole high speed stream, peaking at moderate to high levels. As a result there is a chance that the high energy electron fluence alert threshold may be met on days 1 and 2 (25 and 26 Mar) although this is more likely by days 3 and 4 (27 and 28 Mar). 

 
High Energy Electron Event Forecast
Issued 2018-03-25T00:26:56
Probability of threshold exceedance
 ActiveV.Active
Day 1 30% 1%
Day 2 40% 5%
Day 3 60% 10%
Day 4 60% 10%