MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2018-04-24T00:37:55
The high energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) is expected to remain at mainly high levels (greater than 1000pfu) through the forecast period subject to diurnal variations. Flux levels may fall sharply on day 3 (26 April) in response to any enhanced geomagnetic activity from coronal hole effects.
Corresponding electron fluence values are expected to remain well above the Active threshold (1e8 integrated pfu), and are likely to exceed the Very Active (1e9 integrated pfu) threshold at times, but with a decreasing risk of this occurring during the forecast period.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2018-04-24T00:37:55 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 100% | 70% |
| Day 2 | 95% | 60% |
| Day 3 | 80% | 50% |
| Day 4 | 70% | 30% |