Forecaster summary - Issued 2018-03-31T00:02:19

The high energy electron flux is likely to show a slow decreasing trend in the next four days, with 24-hour integrated flux already having fallen from Very Active (1e9 integrated pfu) to Active (1e8). However, confidence is low in the timing of the expected fall to lower levels. The REFM shows a fall on Days 2 and 3, which seems to be coming into line with the current observations. The persistence model over 27-days doesn't give good guidance due to much lower fluence levels on the previous rotation. This means confidence in the forecast is low.