Forecaster summary - Issued 2018-03-28T00:05:28

The high energy electron flux is likely to remain high to very high levels for much of the forecast period, but with lower confidence from day 3 (30 March) onwards. The 24-hour high energy electron fluence is likely to remain above the Active threshold through much of the 4-day period, but may fall below the Active threshold after day 3 (30 March).

The REFM output is currently indicating a declining trend which is considered to be poor guidance with no significant chance expected until day 3 onwards due to the arrival of the next HSS. Having said this the REF model still indicates fluence levels above the Active threshold on days 2 (29 March) and 3 (30 March) which is probably correct. Looking at persistence offers further poor guidance with fluence levels much lower during the previous rotation at the end of February.