Forecaster summary - Issued 2018-04-04T00:04:39

The high energy electron flux is expected to continue to show a gradual decline, and likely to fall below the Active level on Day 1 or Day 2 (4 or 5 April), as the solar wind parameters are now considered to be insufficient to sustain higher flux levels in the outer Van Allen belts. Flux levels may peak above the active level during the natural diurnal cycle during Day 1 (4 April), and probably not during the following three days of the forecast period.

This decline in high energy flux levels at GEO will feed into the corresponding 24-hour fluence which will remain below the Active threshold and exhibit a decrease in activity as demonstrated by REFM output.