Forecaster summary - Issued 2018-04-13T00:05:06

The prolonged influence of coronal hole 88's fast wind, combined with lack of significant geomagnetic activity, has caused the outer Van Allen belt to charge significantly with electrons. It is now fast approaching very high fluence levels (>1e9pfu/day) with a likelihood of reaching this later on day 1 (13th). The REFM model also suggests this to be the case. There is a reasonable chance too, with continued input from the solar wind over the next few days, that this level will be fairly well maintained through much of the period until the wind eases or there is some significant geomagnetic activity.