Forecaster summary - Issued 2018-05-26T00:10:22

The high energy electron flux is expected to see a gradually rising trend during the period, becoming increasingly likely to reach high levels (greater than 1000pfu) at peaks of the diurnal cycle. Electron counts may see temporary reductions associated with any isolated Active intervals of geomagnetic activity on days 3 and 4 (28th and 29th), but on the whole the trend should be upwards.

The corresponding 24-hour electron fluence is expected to show a gradually rising trend in response, but is not expected to exceed the Active threshold (1e8 integrated pfu).

The large jumps in fluence as predicted by the REFM are likely due to isolated spurious solar wind readings observed in recent days. Fluence values are most likely to see a slow rise, but expected to remain below the Active threshold (1e8 integrated pfu).