MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2018-06-24T00:19:12
Due to the effects of geomagnetic activity from coronal hole 03, the high energy (greater than 2MeV) electron flux is forecast to be at mainly moderate levels, with a slight chance of reaching high levels in line with the diurnal cycle. There is then expected to be a sharp reduction in electrons due to the onset of the high speed stream from coronal hole 03 on day 4 (27 June).
The corresponding 24-hour integrated fluence is forecast to remain below the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) threshold through the forecast period based on persistence from the previous rotation and expected geomagnetic effects.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2018-06-24T00:19:12 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 5% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 1% | 1% |