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MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit

Forecaster summary - Issued 2018-06-24T00:19:12

Due to the effects of geomagnetic activity from coronal hole 03, the high energy (greater than 2MeV) electron flux is forecast to be at mainly moderate levels, with a slight chance of reaching high levels in line with the diurnal cycle. There is then expected to be a sharp reduction in electrons due to the onset of the high speed stream from coronal hole 03 on day 4 (27 June).

The corresponding 24-hour integrated fluence is forecast to remain below the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) threshold through the forecast period based on persistence from the previous rotation and expected geomagnetic effects.

 
High Energy Electron Event Forecast
Issued 2018-06-24T00:19:12
Probability of threshold exceedance
 ActiveV.Active
Day 1 1% 1%
Day 2 1% 1%
Day 3 5% 1%
Day 4 1% 1%