MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2018-07-01T00:20:28
The high energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) at GEO has been mainly high over the last 24-hour period, as the Earth lies in a slightly elevated solar wind. The values are likely to remain similar through the forecast period, although may reduce to moderate at times due to any weak geomagnetic activity.
Corresponding 24 hour electron fluence values remain above the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) threshold, and are likely to stay slightly above this threshold, with no significant changes in the electron flux forecast. Very Active (1e9 integrated pfu) is very unlikely given the current forecast.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2018-07-01T00:20:28 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 100% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 90% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 80% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 70% | 1% |