Forecaster summary - Issued 2018-07-26T00:19:15

The flux of high energy electrons (greater than 2MeV) is currently elevated in response to a fresh influx of electrons into the Van Allen belts, caused by the high speed stream of Coronal Hole 11. The flux has risen faster than previously anticipated, due to subdued geomagnetic activity and compression of the belts, and the 24-hour fluence has already reached the Active threshold of 1e8 particles cm^-2 sr^-1 day^-1. With the high speed wind expected to continue through much of the next 4 days, with little in the way of geomagnetic activity, it is likely that the flux will continue to rise or at least be maintained above the high threshold (>1000pfu). So there is also an increasing chance as days go by of meeting the Very Active threshold on the fluence (1e9 particles cm^-2 sr^-1 day^-1).