MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2018-08-23T00:16:35
The high energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) has been at mainly high levels over the last 24 hours. This is expected to remain at moderate to high levels through the next two days as solar winds remain slightly elevated due to coronal hole 17 high speed stream. Therefore, the electron fluence is expected to remain above the Active threshold (1e8 integrated pfu).
On day 2 the possible arrival of a CME could lead to a fall in the electron flux and therefore electron fluence. However there is uncertainty as to the intensity of this activity, and by day 4 there is still a chance that the electron fluence will remain above the Active threshold.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2018-08-23T00:16:35 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 100% | 5% |
| Day 2 | 70% | 5% |
| Day 3 | 50% | 5% |
| Day 4 | 50% | 5% |