MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2018-07-23T00:16:35
The high energy electron flux (greater than 2 MeV) is expected to be mostly at background to moderate levels, but may peak diurnally at High levels today and again from day 3 (25 Jul).
The corresponding 24-hour fluence values will remain below the High threshold (1e8 integrated pfu), despite a gradually increasing trend. Therefore the Met Office REFM model is considered to offer good guidance.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2018-07-23T00:16:35 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 10% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 40% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 30% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 30% | 1% |