Forecaster summary - Issued 2018-07-30T00:00:17

The high energy electron flux (greater than 2 MeV) is expected to continue to rise above the Active threshold at the maximum of the diurnal cycle on Days 1 and 2, but lower confidence thereafter. The corresponding 24-hour fluence is likely to remain close to, or just below the Active threshold on Days 1 and 2, but with reducing confidence for Days 3 and 4. At present there is insufficient activity to raise fluence levels again, and an expected drop-off is due any day now. The REFM forecast model is probably dropping the fluence too quickly, although the 27-day recurrence suggests above threshold levels may continue for two or three days more. But confidence is low beyond Day 1.