Forecaster summary - Issued 2018-06-14T00:00:36

The high energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) may peak above the Active level on Day 1 (14th) at the peak of the diurnal cycle, but with a generally decreasing trend over the four-day forecast period. The REFM model is still forecasting a fluence drop-off on Day 2 and 3, but it has remained stubbornly elevated just below the Active threshold (1e8 integrated pfu) over the past few days, and this reduces confidence. This is probably because the expected high speed stream has not materialised and an expected disturbance to the flux in the outer Van Allen belts has not occurred on this rotation. The recurrence model also suggests a fall, but again with low or moderate confidence.