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MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit

Forecaster summary - Issued 2018-06-07T00:28:43

The high energy electron flux at GEO is likely to persist above the Active level for much of the period.

The corresponding 24-hour fluence is likely to remain above Active level (1e8 particles cm-2 sr-1 day-1) through the forecast period, but with a gradual decline as solar wind speed return to background levels. Met Office REFM output shows signs of a general reduction in forecast values, but these forecast fluence drop off too quickly, especially during the next 24 hours.

 
High Energy Electron Event Forecast
Issued 2018-06-07T00:28:43
Probability of threshold exceedance
 ActiveV.Active
Day 1 100% 10%
Day 2 80% 5%
Day 3 70% 2%
Day 4 60% 2%