MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2018-06-07T00:28:43
The high energy electron flux at GEO is likely to persist above the Active level for much of the period.
The corresponding 24-hour fluence is likely to remain above Active level (1e8 particles cm-2 sr-1 day-1) through the forecast period, but with a gradual decline as solar wind speed return to background levels. Met Office REFM output shows signs of a general reduction in forecast values, but these forecast fluence drop off too quickly, especially during the next 24 hours.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2018-06-07T00:28:43 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 100% | 10% |
| Day 2 | 80% | 5% |
| Day 3 | 70% | 2% |
| Day 4 | 60% | 2% |