Forecaster summary - Issued 2018-05-31T00:50:53

The radiation belts are currently discharged, showing mainly background flux levels at GEO in the high energy electron band (>2MeV). With only ambient winds expected over the next 48 hours, together with geomagnetic activity on day 3 from the CIR associated with CH98, it is unlikely that flux levels will build and maintain above >1000pfu until day 4 (2 June) when the High Speed Stream is expected to be well established.

Fluence levels are more likely to increase significantly during days 3 and 4 (2 and 3 June) with a chance (20-30%) that the active fluence threshold  (>1e8 particles cm^-2 sr^-1 day^-1) may be breached.