MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2018-09-02T00:32:55
The high energy electron flux (greater than 2 MeV) has been persistently high following CME and coronal hole events from last week, and is expected to continue at high levels for much of the period, albeit with a declining trend to peak values. This decreasing trend has led to the corresponding electron fluence falling below the Very High level (1e9 24 hour integrated pfu) in the last 24 hours. Whilst fluence levels are expected to remain above the high threshold throughout, this now is unlikely to climb back above the very high level during this period.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2018-09-02T00:32:55 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 100% | 10% |
| Day 2 | 100% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 70% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 60% | 1% |