MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2018-10-09T00:10:06
High energy electron (>2MeV) flux/fluence has risen sharply over the past 24 hours, following the arrival of the high speed stream from coronal hole 34, with flux levels reaching high levels on the diurnal peak and fluence levels recently crossing the Active threshold. High or Very High electron flux is now expected on the diurnal peaks through the forecast period, with the fluence remaining above the Active threshold, and with a chance of reaching the Very Active threshold from later on Day 1 (9th Oct) through to Day 3 (11th Oct).
Latest REFM output and 27-day persistence both support a period of enhanced high energy electron levels in the coming days.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2018-10-09T00:10:06 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 99% | 40% |
| Day 2 | 90% | 50% |
| Day 3 | 90% | 40% |
| Day 4 | 80% | 30% |