MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2018-10-14T00:20:46
The high energy electron flux (>2MeV) is now forecast to be moderate to high for much of the four day period.
The high energy electron fluence is now forecast to be above the Active threshold (1e8 pfu) until day 2 (15 Oct), with an increasing chance of falling below this threshold for days 3 and 4 (16 and 17 Oct). However the decrease as depicted in the REFM output is considered to be too quick by around 24-36 hours.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2018-10-14T00:20:46 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 100% | 10% |
| Day 2 | 80% | 20% |
| Day 3 | 60% | 30% |
| Day 4 | 60% | 30% |