MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2018-10-15T00:11:23
Following the arrival of the high speed stream from coronal hole 35, with associated enhanced geomagnetic activity, the high energy electron flux and fluence has reduced significantly today (14th Oct). Flux levels are now at normal background to moderate levels, with fluence now well below the Active threshold. Through the forecast period flux levels may diurnally peak into high levels, however fluence is likely to remain below the Active threshold.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2018-10-15T00:11:23 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 10% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 20% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 20% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 20% | 1% |