MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2018-11-28T00:22:38
The high energy electron flux (greater than 2 Mev) is expected to remain at near background levels. The corresponding 24-hour fluence is therefore expected to remain well below the Active threshold (near to 1e6 integrated pfu) throughout. Both the 27-day recurrence and the forecast model suggest low levels will persist through the forecast period. The anticipated arrival of the nest high speed stream on day 4 (1st December) gives a slight rise to seeing active fluence levels by the end of day 4.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2018-11-28T00:22:38 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 2% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 2% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 20% | 1% |