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MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit

Forecaster summary - Issued 2018-11-28T00:22:38

The high energy electron flux (greater than 2 Mev) is expected to remain at near background levels. The corresponding 24-hour fluence is therefore expected to remain well below the Active threshold (near to 1e6 integrated pfu) throughout. Both the 27-day recurrence and the forecast model suggest low levels will persist through the forecast period. The anticipated arrival of the nest high speed stream on day 4 (1st December) gives a slight rise to seeing active fluence levels by the end of day 4.

 
High Energy Electron Event Forecast
Issued 2018-11-28T00:22:38
Probability of threshold exceedance
 ActiveV.Active
Day 1 2% 1%
Day 2 2% 1%
Day 3 1% 1%
Day 4 20% 1%