MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2018-11-29T00:14:13
The high energy electron flux (greater than 2 Mev) is expected start the period at or near background levels, and anticipated geomagnetic activity on day 3 (1st Dec) is expected to keep electron counts low. The flux is then forecast to increase through day 4 (2nd Dec) as geomagnetic activity subsides, but remain below the high threshold (1000 pfu).
The corresponding 24-hour fluence is expected to remain below the Active threshold (1e8 integrated pfu), although see some increase through day 4.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2018-11-29T00:14:13 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 15% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 30% | 1% |