Forecaster summary - Issued 2018-10-30T00:01:05

The high energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) at geosynchronous Earth orbit is likely to remain at background levels during Days 1 and 2, followed by a modest increase on Day 3 and 4 as a delayed response to the influence of negative CH42. Evidence from the REFM model suggests the associated fluence is expected to remain below the Active threshold, but with slightly raised possibilities of rising above the Active threshold on Day 3 and 4. Both the forecast and the recurrence point to low fluence levels based upon available solar wind data, which raises confidence in the forecast. The 27-day recurrence suggests a rise above the Active threshold is likely on Day 6.