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MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit

Forecaster summary - Issued 2018-12-28T00:11:03

The high energy (greater than 2MeV) electron flux is currently at background levels, though very nearly reached moderate levels (greater than 100pfu) late in the period.  High energy electron flux is expected to be at mainly background to moderate levels at first today (28th), but may then increase slightly to reach moderate to high levels during tomorrow (29th) once the high speed stream from coronal hole 61 is fully established. 

The corresponding 24-hour fluence is currently well below the Active threshold (1e8 integrated pfu) and is generally steady.  Fluence is forecast to remain steady around current levels until later tomorrow (29th), then may show a gradual rising trend, but is most likely to remain below the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) threshold throughout, albeit with decreased confidence by the end of the period.

 
High Energy Electron Event Forecast
Issued 2018-12-28T00:11:03
Probability of threshold exceedance
 ActiveV.Active
Day 1 5% 1%
Day 2 10% 1%
Day 3 20% 1%
Day 4 30% 1%