Forecaster summary - Issued 2019-01-27T00:03:51

The high energy electron flux is expected to rise above the Active threshold at the peak of the diurnal cycles during the period. The corresponding fluence may also rise above the Active threshold (1e8 integrated pfu), with fairly even probabilities at present. The recent daily flux rise suggests possible fluence exceedence. The REFM model has also recently suggested a rise above the Active fluence level, although it bis not conclusive. The 27-day persistence shows levels rose the Active level on Day 1 and 2, but then there followed a decline.