MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2019-02-26T00:14:47
The high energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) is currently at background levels, but expected to increase to moderate or high levels from day 3 after coronal hole high speed stream establishment. However, any increased geomagnetic activity through days 3 and 4 will bring temporary re-distribution of electrons to background levels again.
The corresponding 24-hour fluence is expected to start the period below the active threshold (1e8 integrated pfu), but with an increasing chance of reaching active levels from day 3 as electron counts rise after high speed stream establishment.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2019-02-26T00:14:47 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 10% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 40% | 5% |
| Day 4 | 70% | 10% |