Forecaster summary - Issued 2019-02-27T00:25:34

The high energy electron flux and associated fluence are currently at background levels. The arrival of the fast wind of coronal hole 79, preceded by a CIR, is expected to bright some Active to Minor/Moderate geomagnetic storming, and will ensure electron values remain suppressed through day 1, and likely into day 2, as shown by REFM.

As the connection to the coronal hole becomes fully established, likely through day 2 and into day 3, electron flux values at GEO will become high, perhaps occasionally peaking very high by the end of the period. The associated fluence will then rise, likely reaching Active levels by the end of day 3 and also day 4. However there is some uncertainty, with the re-occurrence of any geomagnetic activity, which could suppress electron fluxes at times later in the period. Despite that, this increase is supported by persistence where Active levels were obtained by the equivalent day 3 on the previous rotation.