Forecaster summary - Issued 2019-01-28T00:01:43

The diurnal peak in high energy electron flux was unexpectedly flat during the second half of the UTC day of Sunday, meaning a close approach to Active 24-hour fluence is now widening once again. Given that the recent high speed stream from coronal hole 68 has now receded, there is unlikely to be a significant influence to close this difference, and instead a gradual day-on-day reduction in the risk of 'Active' is preferred.

The next feature to bolster counts is expected to be coronal hole 70, with this due on day four, Thursday 31 January. The effects of this coronal hole are unlikely to manifest themselves on 24-hour integrated electrons in this four-day period, however the end of the working week is perhaps likely to show exceedence of Active as the initial geomagnetic activity dies down.