MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2019-01-29T00:21:03
The high energy electron flux has diurnally peaked just into the High threshold today (28th), but a gradual downward trend in peak values is expected over the next couple of days, ahead of the onset of the next high speed stream. By day 3 (31st) the anticipated arrival of the next high speed stream is likely to reduce electron levels further due to associated increased geomagnetic activity, before a recovery begins later on day 4. The corresponding fluence levels are expected to show the same trends, whilst remaining below the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) threshold throughout.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2019-01-29T00:21:03 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 30% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 20% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 10% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 20% | 1% |