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MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit

Forecaster summary - Issued 2019-01-29T00:21:03

The high energy electron flux has diurnally peaked just into the High threshold today (28th), but a gradual downward trend in peak values is expected over the next couple of days, ahead of the onset of the next high speed stream. By day 3 (31st) the anticipated arrival of the next high speed stream is likely to reduce electron levels further due to associated increased geomagnetic activity, before a recovery begins later on day 4. The corresponding fluence levels are expected to show the same trends, whilst remaining below the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) threshold throughout.


 
High Energy Electron Event Forecast
Issued 2019-01-29T00:21:03
Probability of threshold exceedance
 ActiveV.Active
Day 1 30% 1%
Day 2 20% 1%
Day 3 10% 1%
Day 4 20% 1%