MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2019-01-30T00:28:59
The high energy electron flux is forecast to vary between moderate and high over the 24 hours. A significant fall in flux is then forecast on day 2 due to the onset of the high speed stream from coronal hole 70. The values are likely to increase through the remainder of the forecast period, perhaps reaching the high (1e3 pfu) threshold on day 4.
Corresponding fluence values are forecast to remain below the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) threshold during days 1 and 2, but are then likely to increase as the high speed stream becomes established.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2019-01-30T00:28:59 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 10% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 10% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 20% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 20% | 1% |