Forecaster summary - Issued 2019-03-01T00:26:54

The high energy (greater than 2MeV) electron flux/fluence values at GEO are expected to continue to increase, with the high energy flux remaining at high levels for most of the time. The corresponding fluence is expected to reach Active levels early today (1st March), and then persist for the rest of the period, as coronal hole influence lingers.

This forecast is based on the previous rotation, where the fluence stayed above the Active threshold for 3 days. However, as coronal hole 79 is more elongated west-east for this rotation, the high speed wind and so supply of high energy electrons is likely to persist a little longer than the previously, The REFM is struggling to grasp this, but does forecast the fluence breaching the Active threshold at times during the forecast period, which is considered to be good guidance. However, in reality the fluence is likely to breach the Active threshold faster than REFM model indicates.