MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2019-02-22T00:09:49
The high energy electron flux (greater than 2 Mev) is expected to remain below Active levels on day 1, though perhaps reaching Active levels during the peak of the diurnal cycle on day 2, 3 and 4 (23rd, 24th and 25th). The corresponding 24-hour fluence is expected to remain below the Active threshold (1e8 integrated pfu) throughout, though with an increasing trend and a slight chance of exceedance towards day 4.
The REFM model is suggesting a slow rise, while the 27-day recurrence shows a quite rapid one towards the Active fluence threshold by the equivalent of day 2. While it never crossed it, it is considered to be a reasonable signal. However, given the solar winds are much weaker than during the last rotation (by almost 150 km/s), the electron flux is expected to recover more slowly and the corresponding fluence to increase less rapidly, reducing the risk of reaching the Active threshold although there is a still slight chance it could happen on day 4 (Monday 25th).
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2019-02-22T00:09:49 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 2% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 10% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 20% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 30% | 1% |