MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2019-02-21T00:11:51
The high energy electron flux is currently at moderate levels, though it may exceed the high (1000 pfu) threshold during the diurnal maximum on day 1 and possibly 2 (21st-22nd) . The integrated Electron Fluence levels are well below the 1e8 warning level. REFM would suggest they are likely to remain below, though with a slow rising trend, perhaps with a chance of reaching the Active threshold on day 4.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2019-02-21T00:11:51 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 5% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 20% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 20% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 30% | 1% |