MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2019-03-23T00:19:41
The high energy electron flux (greater than 2 MeV) is expected to be at normal background to moderate levels until day 3 (25 March), then increasing moderate to high levels, as the impacts from geomagnetic activity wane and solar winds potentially remain elevated or slightly elevated post CME arrival.
The corresponding 24 hour fluence is expected to remain below the Active threshold (1e8 integrated pfu), although rising closer to the Active threshold through days 3&4 (25 and 26 March).
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2019-03-23T00:19:41 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 5% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 5% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 20% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 40% | 1% |