Forecaster summary - Issued 2019-04-22T00:07:30

The high energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) is expected to continue its current pattern of background to moderate levels during the first half of the forecast period. A brief reduction may occur due to a weak CME expected to arrive on day 1( Monday 22), but confidence is very low.

However, with the high speed stream from coronal hole 06 expected to arrive on day 3 (Wednesday 24), the flux values may begin to increase, with the corresponding 24-hour fluence values gradually rising through the rest of the period. This could lead to the Active threshold being met at the end of day 4 (Thursday 25), though confidence is still low.

This scenario is backed up by the SWPM and similar timings were observed by STEREO-A a few days ago.