Forecaster summary - Issued 2019-04-23T00:23:12

The high energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) is expected to vary diurnally between background and moderate levels through day 1. However the flux will then fall significantly in response to the onset of the high speed stream from coronal hole 06. As the coronal hole high speed stream becomes established, electron flux values are likely to reach high levels (1e3 pfu).

In line with increasing electron flux values, the 24-hour integrated fluence is likely to steadily increase through the period, perhaps exceeding the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) threshold by day 4.