Forecaster summary - Issued 2019-04-30T00:01:44

The current background high energy electron flux is expected to continue for much of the period. However the arrival of the fast wind alongside coronal hole 10, most likely later on day 2 and during day 3, is likely to elevate electron flux levels to high values. This is similar to persistence. Given the current very low flux levels, the fluence response is likely to be delayed, with the 24 hour integrated electron counts likely exceeding the Active threshold (1e8) by the end of day 3 (Thursday 2nd) and during day 4 (Friday 03rd).